Data and Divergence
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Democrats Have a Baby Problem
Republicans are having more children than Democrats, and the gap is widening with real electoral consequences.
Jan 30
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Zachary Donnini
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How My Demographic Estimates Became Central to the NY-11 Redistricting Case
A breakdown of the core empirical dispute, why traditional ecological inference breaks down here, and what the data actually show.
Jan 26
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Zachary Donnini
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2025 Data and Divergence Year in Review
As I wrap up my final Data and Divergence of 2025, I want to start with a thank you to readers.
Dec 31, 2025
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Zachary Donnini
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2026 Redistricting: A Messy, High-Stakes, State-by-State Scramble
Court fights, ballot measures, and dueling gerrymanders are reshaping the map
Nov 19, 2025
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Zachary Donnini
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NYC Mayor Preview
The sequel is here
Oct 30, 2025
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Zachary Donnini
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The Great American Political Realignment: Westerville and West Covina
What can we learn from my national presidential election group estimates by precinct?
Sep 16, 2025
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Zachary Donnini
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How Zohran Mamdani Could Deliver the Left's Most Important Win in Years
Looking back to the primary and ahead to the general election
Jun 27, 2025
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Zachary Donnini
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Democrats can’t depend on young voters anymore
Our precinct-level analysis broadly aligns with David Shor’s numbers on Gen Z
Published on Yale Youth Poll
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May 1, 2025
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Data and Divergence
Political data analysis, demographics, and US elections.
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