5-Minute Election Day Guide

Everything you need to know for tonight

I’ve condensed everything I know about what will happen tonight into a 5-minute guide to make you the most knowledgeable person in the room on November 5th (and after). To all of my loyal D&D readers, you’re being rewarded since this is my big value add, especially compared to my last five articles explaining why the presidential race is basically a tossup.

I'll focus primarily on the presidential race (because let's be honest, that's what most of you are here for), but I'll drop some down-ballot insights at the bottom.

All times are Eastern.

The Basics

The first results will start coming in at 6 PM, with key results expected by 7 PM. The busiest period will likely be from 7 PM to 3 AM. There’s about a 70% chance we’ll know the winner by 3 AM, but if not, it could take several days to reach a final call.

The outcome of 43 states at the presidential level is largely irrelevant going into Election Day, seven battleground states will ultimately decide the Electoral College. I’ll focus primarily on these key states, as well as states that report results early. If Trump wins Minnesota or Harris flips Iowa, it likely won’t matter much since either candidate would have already secured a dominant performance, reaching 270 Electoral Votes anyways. Here’s a (very rough) map of states Harris or Trump are favored in or those that are considered very close.

Follow results on Twitter @DecisionDeskHQ and online here.

Presidency: Indiana and Kentucky

The first results will be reported after 6 PM with poll closings in Indiana and Kentucky. While neither state is competitive (Trump will dominate both), their early results could provide valuable clues about national trends. If either candidate significantly exceeds expectations in key areas that report quickly, it could indicate broader momentum, as overperformance in one states has a strong correlation with overperformance in other states.

Presidency: Florida

Florida, the first competitive state to fully report, closes at 7 PM and counts votes really fast. Roughly 65% of votes—mainly early and absentee ballots that could slightly favor either Democrats—are counted within 30 minutes. A race call should come right at 8 PM if Trump performs well, as the western panhandle closes. Florida's efficient reporting provides an early glimpse of the national picture, making it a focal point of analysis.

While Trump’s win in Florida signaled strength in 2016 and 2020, Harris was never expected to compete here that seriously in 2024. If she wins Florida, she has a 99% chance of winning the presidency. Trump is projected to win by about 7.2%, so a tighter margin would be good for Harris. 9:00 AM update: Election Day turnout looks so bad for Harris in Florida so she’ll probably lose by more, but this is probably isolated to the Sunshine State.

I’ll especially be interested in results in…

Northwest Jacksonville (Black voters):

Early returns from Duval County’s inner-city Black precincts could signal national Black support. If Trump exceeds 8% here, he may reach 15% nationally among Black voters—this would be rough for Democrats.

South Tampa (Affluent White suburb):

An ancestral Republican area, South Tampa’s more normal age demographics than the rest of Florida mean it’s a valuable signal for affluent suburban shifts. A 5+ point gain for Harris here would indicate similar trends nationwide.

Osceola County (Puerto Ricans voters): 

Puerto Ricans have been under a lot of discussion since the “garbage” comment from comedian Tony Hinchcliffe at a Trump rally. Unfortunately for the Trump campaign, Pennsylvania has a massive population of Puerto Ricans in Reading, Allentown, and Bethlehem. Osceola County also has a massive PR population, which will be predictive of Trump’s performance in PA.

Presidency: North Carolina and Georgia

Polls in GA and NC close at 7 and 7:30 PM, respectively, and should report votes quickly (especially in Georgia). Georgia, thanks to new legislation requiring absentee and early votes to be counted within an hour, will be the first key states that reports a lot of votes. North Carolina follows a similar pattern but faces a potential hour-long delay in counting early votes due to new state laws. 

Absentee and early votes (combined) are expected to slightly favor Trump in GA and slightly favor Harris in NC. If NC only reports absentee ballots first however (which I expect because of a new state law postponing the count of EV), before EV, Harris could build a massive lead across NC in the first 20 minutes, before she comes back down to earth.

Trump will gain in both states in the middle of the counting process, as Election Day votes from more rural areas are counted. Harris should close especially hard in Georgia since the final votes counted are from in and around the Atlanta urban area.

Ohio closes at 7:30 PM as well, which most notably has a key senate race in Sherrod Brown vs. Bernie Moreno. Early results (AB/EV is reported first) could look pretty good for Harris.

Presidency: Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania closes at 8 PM and is the most important state in this election. If Harris is off to a bad start in the Sun Belt (Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia) she will need to win Pennsylvania to keep her hopes alive.

Early results are likely to heavily favor Harris due to urban absentee votes being counted early. Then, Trump will gain and most likely take a lead as rural areas report from 9pm to midnight. 

Unlike North Carolina and Georgia, Pennsylvania will not count all of its votes on election night. Harris is expected to gain substantially (by about 2%) on Wednesday, meaning she can be losing by a considerable margin in Pennsylvania at 4 AM and still win the state.

Presidency: Michigan and Wisconsin

If PA, GA, and NC “split” the election will mostly come down to MI and WI.

These Midwest battlegrounds close at 8 and 9 PM and count votes pretty slowly.

Wisconsin typically finishes counting around 2-3 AM ET. A crucial and heavily Democratic batch of Milwaukee City absentee votes, dropping between 1 and 3 am, could swing the result. Harris should gain about 60k votes on Trump in that drop, so she can make up a pretty sizable deficit late.

Michigan counts more slowly and less transparently, with Wayne County (Detroit) mostly reporting between 11 PM and 4 AM. Wayne County is a massive proportion of the state population and is quite Democratic, so she can make up a lot of margin late in Michigan too.

Both states should fully complete their counts by Wednesday night, but both should be called by decision desks in the early hours of Wednesday morning.

Presidency: Nevada and Arizona

Don't expect a quick call in either state. Arizona's first results will report an hour after 9 PM ET polls close, and should slightly lean towards Harris compared to final results, but Trump is expected to gain ground as Election Day votes are counted. Nevada, closing at 10 PM ET, won't release any results until all polling places are clear, and only about 70% of votes will be counted on Election Night. 

If the election comes down to Nevada and Arizona, there’s a good chance it takes multiple days, and maybe even as long as a week to declare a winner.

US Senate

The Senate battlegrounds largely mirror the presidential map, with two additional crucial races. Ohio's contest between Brown and Moreno should be called by midnight - if Brown trails by less than 2% with 80% reporting, he's likely to win as remaining urban votes typically favor Democrats. Montana's race could stretch into Wednesday, with Republicans expected to gain about 3% after Election Night concludes.

US House

US House control won't be determined on Election Night. Roughly 25 key districts will remain uncalled on Wednesday morning. This delay stems from slow counting in states like California, Arizona, Washington, and Oregon. The final balance of power might not be known for several weeks after Election Day.