Biden Dropped Out. Now What?

What could the next 100 days possibly have in store for us...

This week, it started to become increasingly likely that President Biden might withdraw from the 2024 presidential race after key Democratic figures such as Nancy Pelosi urged him to reconsider his decision to run for reelection. This afternoon, he confirmed these speculations in a statement on X (formerly Twitter), announcing his decision to step aside. Shortly after, Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris for the Democratic nomination. This unprecedented move has thrown the Democratic Party into turmoil, as no presumptive nominee has ever left the ticket this late in an election year.

Harris Is Extremely Likely to be the Democratic Nominee

It's already pretty evident that Harris is poised to become the Democratic nominee for president, barring any extraordinary circumstances. The Democrats have potentially sidestepped significant intra-party conflict following Biden's withdrawal. This is largely because Harris's strongest supporters were previously among Biden's most ardent backers, who now view her nomination as a victory. The Congressional Black Caucus has made it pretty clear from the start they would strongly back Harris as a replacement to Biden, and members have released some pretty harsh statements in the past few hours.

At this moment, there’s a lot of buzz that former WV Senator Joe Manchin will toss his hat into the ring for the Democratic nomination, but that’s obviously not going to go anywhere. Marianne Williamson is expected to restart her campaign, ensuring the nomination remains technically undecided until the convention. Key endorsements for Harris are rapidly accumulating. Most notably, potential challengers Gavin Newsom and Josh Shapiro have already thrown their support behind her. Sources close to Gretchen Whitmer have indicated she won't enter the race, and the time you read this, there’s a pretty good chance she will likely have endorsed Harris as well.

New General Election Matchup: Trump v. Harris

Directionally, I think it’s good for Democrats that Biden dropped out. He already was in deep deep trouble electorally, with my latest forecast giving him only a 23% chance of winning (a projection almost exactly aligned with Nate Silver's). This decline wasn't due to a mere gaffe or temporary polling setback. Rather, Biden's performance in the first debate failed to meet basic expectations, making a substantial comeback seem improbable given his mental decline.

While I'll provide more detailed analysis on Harris below, it's important to note that she's not without her own challenges. Her poor performance in the 2020 Democratic primary revealed significant weaknesses, and she now faces the additional burden of her association with the Biden administration. Although polling conducted before Harris officially became a candidate should be taken with a grain of salt, her current standing doesn't indicate a particularly strong starting position. Few analysts would likely argue that Harris is an exceptionally strong candidate.

The shift from Biden to Harris alters the Democrats' most likely path to defeating Trump. Harris faces a steeper challenge: to have a 50% chance of winning the Electoral College, she likely needs to beat Trump by 2.5-3% in the national popular vote. This is a formidable task, considering her current 2% deficit in polls.

Harris's candidacy will likely expand the battleground map, putting Sun Belt states back into play. However, this advantage may be offset by potentially weaker performance in Rust Belt states, where Biden had shown strength.

Previously, I've discussed how Biden's best chance against Trump relied on a potentially favorable shift in the Electoral College bias due to demographic changes. If 6% of voters of color shifted from Biden to Trump, while 1.3% of white voters moved from Trump to Biden uniformly across the nation (assuming constant turnout and ignoring generational churn), Biden could have won the Electoral College in 2024 with just a 1% edge in the national popular vote.

This potential advantage likely doesn't apply as much to Harris. I expect her to consolidate minority support in the coming months (especially among voters who view both Trump and Biden unfavorably) but probably will struggle to match Biden's unusually strong backing from older white voters, which is key in the WIMPA/Rust Belt states. Consequently, her most viable path to victory lies in significantly improving her standing in the national popular vote, while Biden probably could have scraped by with less of a popular vote improvement.

Kamala Harris 

Harris boasts an impressive resume, arguably making her one of the most qualified nominees in the last century. Her experience includes:

• 7 years as San Francisco District Attorney

• 6 years as California Attorney General

• 4 years as U.S. Senator

• 4 years as Vice President

This breadth and depth of experience is hard to match.

Despite her career and qualifications, Harris lacks experience in competitive general elections. Her only tight race against a Republican was the 2010 California Attorney General election, which she nearly lost while underperforming the top of the ticket by 12 points.

Her 2020 presidential primary campaign was underwhelming. She dropped out in November 2019, polling at just 3% and on the verge of being overtaken by Andrew Yang. Biden's selection of Harris as VP wasn't due to her broad support within the Democratic electorate, but because she was deemed the strongest woman of color on the Democratic bench.

Some conservatives have criticized this selection criterion, but it's a misunderstanding of the VP selection process. Vice presidential picks have always been used to balance tickets. For instance, Mike Pence was chosen by Trump in 2016 largely for his appeal to evangelicals. Similarly, Harris will likely choose her VP from a plethora of white male options.

The VP selection has always been shrouded in identity politics, by both Democrats and Republicans – it's a standard practice in presidential politics.

It's undeniably unusual for the new Democratic nominee to be someone who polled at just 3% in December and dropped out before the Iowa caucuses in her only presidential primary campaign. However, Harris has significant advantages as a unifying candidate at a critical time for the Democratic party. She's broadly acceptable across various key factions (establishment, CBC, CPC) of the party, which is crucial given the current circumstances

Trump’s Rhetoric on This Swap

It's crucial not to overestimate Trump's ability to portray Harris as an illegitimate candidate. His campaign's focus on Biden's age was so effective (aided by Biden's debate performance) that even Democrats acknowledged the need for Biden to withdraw. This success, however, makes it difficult for Trump to pivot to criticizing Biden's decision to step down without appearing inconsistent.

I think the more effective strategy for Trump is to frame Harris as complicit in concealing Biden's declining capabilities from the public. Trump has already labeled her the "Enabler in Chief," suggesting he'll focus on tying her to Biden’s unpopular administration and campaign (which is smart).

The question of whether Trump will debate Harris is intriguing. While it would be unprecedented for presidential nominees to not debate, Trump can pretty easily justify such a decision based on his dominant performance against Biden. Some sources already suggest Trump won't debate Harris, which strikes me as strategically sound.

If they are sharp, the Trump campaign will likely wait until after the Democratic Convention on August 22nd before making a final decision on debating. If Harris's poll numbers don't significantly improve by then, Trump should and probably will opt out of debating her. Debating Harris is definitely the high-variance strategy, and with a current lead, Trump's campaign should prefer the more conservative approach. When you are up two scores in the third quarter you play it safe when you get behind the chains, period.