D&D 2024 Final Predictions
D&D 2024 Election Night Final Predictions
Before I launch in, I'd like to emphasize that I generally avoid trying to making these types of predictions. A key principle in my approach to election forecasting and communication is acknowledging and highlighting the inherent uncertainty involved in the process. I still stand by my probabilistic forecasts you can find here, which will give you a better understanding for the range of outcomes that is possible to happen on Election Night than my “predictions” below. I also urge you to read my Election Night Guide article coming in a week or so, which will make you the most knowledgeable person in the room about what’s going down on November 5th (and the week after) and is probably more of a value add than my predictions below. And, follow Decision Desk HQ on Twitter, for fast and reliable analysis on Election Night.
Still, everyone thinks it's fun to see some predictions and I’m sick of people groaning at me when they ask what’s going to happen and I say “idk man it's pretty close” so without further ado let's dive in.
Trump Wins the Presidency and Clears 300 Electoral Votes
Another Disclaimer: I think experts basically don’t have any more of an idea about what’s going to happen on Election Day than anyone else, so I don’t want to put my prediction on a pedestal because who the hell knows. I think Kalshi nails the current situation; 58-42 Trump is almost exactly what my priors are heading into Election Night. If I’m really splitting hairs I slightly disagree with some of the state markets (they are slightly underrating her in the Sun Belt and slightly overrating her in the Rust Belt, relative to current polling. Polling errors have tended to be better for Democrats in the Sun Belt than Rust Belt this decade, so it’s unclear why they’re going in the other direction, but I digress).
My gut is with Trump as well, and I have him winning 6 of 7 key battleground states in my prediction. I think it's going to be an election of radical racial depolarization, and I think the Dem turnout machine is operating really well in Wisconsin right now post Dobbs, so I think she holds onto the Badger State.
I’ll say Trump wins AZ by 3, FL by 7, GA by 3, MI by 0, NC by 3, NV by 2, TX by 8 and PA by 2.
Republicans Win the Senate and Flip all the Red States
I think Republicans hold FL and TX and flip MT by pretty healthy margins, which gives them 51 seats and control of the chamber.
No one cares that much about the seat AFTER Republicans clinch control, but the most interesting US Senate race in 2024 is obviously Sherrod Brown in Ohio. I’m increasingly optimistic about Kamala Harris’s prospects in Ohio, which could be a major boost for Brown. While I think Harris will lose by about 9-10%, that’s still a slight leftward shift compared to the country as a whole and at least gives Brown some chance, halting two consecutive rightward trends in Ohio. I believe the bleeding for Democrats in SE Ohio has mostly stopped, as it’s hard to imagine Republicans doing even better in Appalachia. Meanwhile, about a quarter of the state is made up of highly suburban areas that I expect to swing left again.
One reason I’m not as confident in Brown’s chances of significantly outperforming Harris is Trump’s unpopularity in these suburbs. It’s hard to picture Brown outpacing Harris by much in the suburban areas or in the inner-city Black communities, which make up around 10% of the electorate. For example, I expect Harris to win Westerville (a white, upper-middle-class Columbus suburb) by 23% and Mason (a southwest Ohio suburb) by 1%. I can’t see Brown winning these suburbs by the 33% and 11% margins he would need. In 2022, despite Democratic gains in suburbs nationwide, Westerville and Mason actually shifted 2% to the right compared to the state overall, even with a right-wing populist like JD Vance on the ballot.
My prediction: Trump wins Ohio by 9.5%, and Brown loses by 2.5%. If Brown manages to keep the race close, it will likely be because Trump performs poorly in the suburbs, preventing Brown from needing a large overperformance.
Looking beyond Ohio, I’d say there’s a 50% chance Republicans win at least one of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, or Arizona. I’m skeptical of the polling that suggests significant split-ticket voting in these states. If Trump wins Wisconsin or Michigan by 2-3%, that could be enough to push Hovde and Slotkin to victory. On the other hand, I’m not convinced by the hype around McCormick in Pennsylvania; calling it a tossup seems a bit too optimistic. It would still be a massive upset if Casey goes down.
I’d be shocked if moderate Republican Larry Hogan flips Maryland or if Independent Dan Osborn wins in Nebraska, but both will likely overperform fundamentals by a ton and lose by around 8-12%. I think Osborn will come closer than Hogan, as Nebraska is less Republican than Maryland is Democratic.
I’m not overjoyed about the (lack of) transparency surrounding Osborn’s internal polling that shows him ahead. The main reason we think this race is close is internal polling from Osborn, and it doesn’t at all meet the standards I look for from a methodology, crosstabs, and presidential toplines standpoint. It’s also an odd situation for Fischer, since releasing internal polling showing her ahead by 15 points wouldn’t help her fundraising efforts. So we’re left in a bit of a gray area in terms of reliable internal polling, and we have very limited public polling of the race.
Democrats Narrowly Clinch the House, Avoiding a GOP Trifecta
In a similar manner to 2020, I have Democrats really struggling in NY and CA, really hurting their math to flip control of the chamber. However, I have them performing quite well across the rest of the country, and flipping barely enough seats in NY and CA (CA-27, CA-45, NY-03, and NY-22) to win the chamber.
As I said above, I think there’s going to be a racial alignment where Republicans do really well with Hispanic and Black voters (almost flipping TX-34, and winning NC-01, CA-13, and CA-22) and Democrats gain a lot with White voters, especially secular and middle/higher education white voters in the Great Plains area (winning MT-01, IA-02, and WI-03).
Of course, this map is a bit aggressive and has some upsets for kicks and giggle (CA-47 going red), so I encourage readers to take these with a grain of salt and investigate my probabilistic house predictions more.