NYC Mayor Preview

The sequel is here

I think it says something about my perception of this race that I feel comfortable writing this article six days before the election instead of on election day. Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani is heavily favored to defeat former New York Governor Andrew Cuomo next Tuesday in New York City’s mayoral general election. With Republican nominee Curtis Sliwa splitting the anti-Mamdani vote with Cuomo, leaving little realistic path to victory for either—even if Mamdani ends up falling short of a majority. The race has become a key test for the left as Democrats try to regain their footing after Kamala Harris’s 2024 loss to Donald Trump and the GOP’s trifecta. It also could mark Mamdani’s second straight win over Cuomo after beating him soundly in the June primary.

New York has nine days of early voting, and the figures and data below reflect totals through Day 5. I’ll continue to post my analysis of Early Voting on X.

Summary

The outcome of the 2025 New York City mayoral race is looking less and less in question. Zohran Mamdani enters the final stretch with a consistent lead in the polling, and early voting data doesn’t challenge those numbers. Curtis Sliwa continues to stay in the race and peel away anti-Mamdani voters from Andrew Cuomo, leaving the former governor with little room to maneuver.

Cuomo’s only realistic path requires a combination of several unlikely events: a collapse in Sliwa’s support, a surge in Republican turnout, and a polling miss that restores his primary-era strength with Black Democrats. So far, none of those boxes are being checked. Early voting data suggests a bluer and reasonably young electorate that plays directly into Mamdani’s strengths. Mamdani appears on track for a decisive victory that would cement his status as the national left’s most prominent new face in city politics.

The Good for Mamdani

1. He’s Leading Comfortably, and It’s Not Changing

Mamdani is consistently polling ahead by double digits, and the electorate projected in those polls appears in line with what we’re seeing so far in early voting. Candidates leading by this much rarely lose. Sliwa continues to play the spoiler role effectively, drawing a sizable share of the anti-Mamdani vote from Cuomo. Mamdani is polling strongly with registered Democrats (including Black Democrats, a group he lost handily in the primary) who are expected to make up nearly three-quarters of the electorate on Tuesday.

2. The Age Mix Is Shifting Younger

There’s been a lot of buzz this week about how different November turnout has been from the June primary in terms of age, largely thanks to this good article from Gothamist. Older voters led the first three days of early voting, which seems good for Cuomo as he did much better with older voters in the Democratic Primary. However, younger voters have been showing up in greater numbers over the past couple of days, making the age gap less of a problem for Mamdani.

3. Bad Republican Turnout

To have any real chance at beating Mamdani, Cuomo needs to assemble a coalition of moderate Democrats (particularly older voters) and Republicans who back him over Sliwa. Compared to Mamdani, he’ll likely win Republicans and lose Democrats. That makes lower Republican turnout especially damaging, given how much he’s relying on them to stay competitive.

Early voting in the 2024 general election:
🔵 69.9% Registered Democrats

Early voting in 2025 (through 5 days):
🔵 74.0% Registered Democrats

New York City was Harris+39 in 2024, and based on early vote data, we’re currently tracking toward a Harris+45 electorate this November by my estimate. That makes the math even tougher for Cuomo.

The Path (and Problems) for Cuomo

There definitely have been some good datapoints for Cuomo over the past week. To stay competitive, he needs to roughly match his June primary performance with registered Democrats, winning around 40% of them, and the Democrats turning out so far look more favorable to him demographically. Turnout among older voters and Black voters, both groups he won comfortably in June, has been strong. The early-week data sparked a bit of momentum for him, reflected in rising prediction market odds and a string of GOP endorsements backing him over Sliwa.

But there have also been clear negatives for Cuomo, and a mix of positives and negatives isn’t great when you are consistently trailing by double digits in polling.

For Cuomo to make this a real race, several things would need to break his way. First, Sliwa would have to badly underperform his polling and act less as a spoiler than he has so far. That is not impossible, since candidates with no realistic chance often underperform polling when voters make strategic choices, but it is far from guaranteed. Second, Republican turnout would need to rise significantly. The problem with relying on reluctant anti-Mamdani voters is that they’re not particularly motivated to show up, and GOP turnout has been weak so far. That could always change if Republicans start turning out in force, but as things stand, the math is much easier for Mamdani since he is winning Harris voters and only losing among Trump voters. Third, Cuomo would need a fairly large polling error. Recent polls suggest he has lost a lot of ground among groups he performed well with in the primary, especially Black Democrats. For him to have a shot, that would need to be wrong.

If all three of those things happened—Sliwa fading hard, Republican turnout surging, and Cuomo holding his primary-level support with Black voters—Cuomo would have a chance. But right now, it looks like he is 0-for-3.

ZD Final Prediction

(This reflects my own personal view, not a model or a forecast from any organization I’m affiliated with.)

Mamdani 51%
Cuomo 33%
Sliwa 14%