Data and Divergence

I Predicted Trump’s 2024 Victory. Here’s Why 2026 Looks Rough for Republicans.

Why VoteHub’s 2026 forecast is bullish on Democrats, why the Senate remains difficult, and what could still help Republicans avoid a blue wave.

May 7 • Zachary Donnini

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April 2026

Trump’s Crackdown Sends Migration Plunging

My estimates point to a recent substantial and widespread decline in net international migration, and it may be just getting started

Apr 6 • Zachary Donnini

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It’s Not Just the Weather: People Are Moving to Red States

A county-level model shows that differences in climate and general development patterns do not fully explain the migration advantage seen in red states.

Apr 3 • Zachary Donnini

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March 2026

How To Win Your March Madness Bracket Pool in 2026

How to win your March Madness bracket pool with sharp strategy, smart risk, and analytics-driven picks to outplay your competition in 2026

Mar 18 • Zachary Donnini

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January 2026

Democrats Have a Baby Problem

Republicans are having more children than Democrats, and the gap is widening with real electoral consequences.

Jan 30 • Zachary Donnini

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How My Demographic Estimates Became Central to the NY-11 Redistricting Case

A breakdown of the core empirical dispute, why traditional ecological inference breaks down here, and what the data actually show.

Jan 26 • Zachary Donnini

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December 2025

2025 Data and Divergence Year in Review

As I wrap up my final Data and Divergence of 2025, I want to start with a thank you to readers.

Dec 31, 2025 • Zachary Donnini

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November 2025

2026 Redistricting: A Messy, High-Stakes, State-by-State Scramble

Court fights, ballot measures, and dueling gerrymanders are reshaping the map

Nov 19, 2025 • Zachary Donnini

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October 2025

NYC Mayor Preview

The sequel is here

Oct 30, 2025 • Zachary Donnini

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September 2025

The Great American Political Realignment: Westerville and West Covina

What can we learn from my national presidential election group estimates by precinct?

Sep 16, 2025 • Zachary Donnini

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June 2025

How Zohran Mamdani Could Deliver the Left's Most Important Win in Years

Looking back to the primary and ahead to the general election

Jun 27, 2025 • Zachary Donnini

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May 2025

Democrats can’t depend on young voters anymore

Our precinct-level analysis broadly aligns with David Shor’s numbers on Gen Z

Published on Yale Youth Poll • May 1, 2025