Data and Divergence

Trump’s Crackdown Sends Migration Plunging

My estimates point to a recent substantial and widespread decline in net international migration, and it may be just getting started

Apr 6 • Zachary Donnini

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It’s Not Just the Weather: People Are Moving to Red States

A county-level model shows that differences in climate and general development patterns do not fully explain the migration advantage seen in red states.

Apr 3 • Zachary Donnini

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March 2026

How To Win Your March Madness Bracket Pool in 2026

How to win your March Madness bracket pool with sharp strategy, smart risk, and analytics-driven picks to outplay your competition in 2026

Mar 18 • Zachary Donnini

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January 2026

Democrats Have a Baby Problem

Republicans are having more children than Democrats, and the gap is widening with real electoral consequences.

Jan 30 • Zachary Donnini

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How My Demographic Estimates Became Central to the NY-11 Redistricting Case

A breakdown of the core empirical dispute, why traditional ecological inference breaks down here, and what the data actually show.

Jan 26 • Zachary Donnini

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December 2025

2025 Data and Divergence Year in Review

As I wrap up my final Data and Divergence of 2025, I want to start with a thank you to readers.

Dec 31, 2025 • Zachary Donnini

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November 2025

2026 Redistricting: A Messy, High-Stakes, State-by-State Scramble

Court fights, ballot measures, and dueling gerrymanders are reshaping the map

Nov 19, 2025 • Zachary Donnini

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October 2025

NYC Mayor Preview

The sequel is here

Oct 30, 2025 • Zachary Donnini

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September 2025

The Great American Political Realignment: Westerville and West Covina

What can we learn from my national presidential election group estimates by precinct?

Sep 16, 2025 • Zachary Donnini

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June 2025

How Zohran Mamdani Could Deliver the Left's Most Important Win in Years

Looking back to the primary and ahead to the general election

Jun 27, 2025 • Zachary Donnini

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May 2025

Democrats can’t depend on young voters anymore

Our precinct-level analysis broadly aligns with David Shor’s numbers on Gen Z

Published on Yale Youth Poll • May 1, 2025

March 2025

Low Turnout, High Stakes

Democrats keep winning low-turnout specials like next Tuesday’s in Florida and Wisconsin — a pattern that’s intensified since Trump returned to power

Mar 28, 2025 • Zachary Donnini